Fooled by randomness  

Our lives and specifically the market are so full of random aspects and complex structures. Understanding the behaviour of markets and attributing specific reasons to its behaviour is totally impossible and sometimes a useless task. As the title explains, Taleb’s theory explains how all of us get fooled easily by randomness. Taleb goes on to elaborate how we misconstrue luck and skill. Wherever true luck plays a role, we assume it to be the work of individual skill. Most impressive situations in life are only due to luck, claims Taleb. He uses the theory of black swans (rare events) to propound his idea and says that black swans cannot be predicted.Taleb elucidates his theory through some popular examples using people like the baseball expert Yogi Berra, the philosopher Karl Popper, the ancient wise man Solon, the financier George Soros and the Greek voyager Odysseus. Most of all, journalists and traders fall for the randomness as well. In addition to real-life examples, Taleb also brings in the case of the fictitious hero Nero, who is smart enough to understand the play of randomness in his professional life, but is superstitiously foolish.